It’s no secret that South Korea keeps a close eye on its northern, nuke-armed neighbor. Rumors were already afloat about the deteriorated health of Kim Jong Il in the South Korean press after his somewhat prolonged absence from the public spotlight. But when the North Korean leader didn’t appear at his country’s extravagant 60th anniversary celebration Sept. 9, that was enough for the South Korean government to unleash a torrent of speculation.

 

A front-page Chosun Ilbo story headlined “Rumors of Kim Jong Il’s Serious Illness” cited anonymous insider government sources saying Kim had suffered a stroke. While the U.S. media believed a stroke left Kim partially paralyzed, South Korean officials had another story, noting that Kim was suffering convulsions, according to the Chosun Ilbo. The Joongang Daily reported that Kim had brain surgery and was recovering, but that his mistress Kim Ok was now emerging in a key leadership position. The Korea Times said that Kim Jong Il was well enough to brush his teeth. His health condition was still making front-page news days later, overshadowing the country’s biggest holiday, Chuseok.

 

On that warm day, as South Korean families were relaxing and spending time together at the Cheonggyecheon stream in downtown Seoul, the news seemed to be a hot topic, though reaction was mixed.

 

“I’m somewhat suspicious,” said 50-year-old Lee Ok-boon through an interpreter. Lee, who was peddling cotton candy, said she didn’t believe the rumors because North Korea often lies, but thought South Koreans were very interested in the topic because “who knows if war between North and South Korea will begin?”

 

That sentiment was echoed by 25-year-old teacher Kim Jin-hee who was skeptical about Kim falling ill, but believes his health is a “crucial matter” in relations between North and South Korea.

 

Lee Yoon-sang, 47, on the other hand, did believe Kim was seriously sick and that, while his death could lead to instability in the North because the leader hasn’t yet designated his heir, it could also open the door to reunification.

 

That’s the scenario the South Korean government appears to be planning for as well. An anonymous senior government official was quoted in the Chosun Ilbo saying that while the previous South Korean administration had a contingency plan to keep the North Korean system stable, President Lee Myung-bak’s administration is preparing for “possible diplomatic measures” and formulating a plan for possible mobilization with the U.S. military. As yet, it’s all speculation. If there’s anything that’s certain, it’s that the situation is uncertain.